Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Retrenchment of Liquidity Provision within Supply Chains: Evidence from China
Haozhe Han, Xingjian Wang, and Chi Yao
2025
Presented (scheduled) at 2026 China Financial Research Conference (CFRC), and the 22nd Chinese Finance Annual Meeting (CFAM) 2025, Nanjing, China
This paper examines how monetary policy uncertainty disrupts the transmission of monetary policy through supply chain networks by inducing firms to retrench from liquidity provision. Using data from Chinese listed non-financial firms, we find that monetary policy uncertainty significantly increases firms’ reliance on supplier financing while reducing credit extended to customers, transforming firms from net liquidity providers to net liquidity receivers within supply chains. Mechanism analysis reveals that elevated financing costs drive this liquidity retrenchment, with effects concentrated among financially constrained firms and those with stronger bargaining power. The disruption is more severe among non-state-owned enterprises and during monetary policy tightening periods, precisely when maintaining liquidity flows would be most valuable for economic stability. Our findings identify a novel friction in monetary policy transmission: uncertainty induces firms to prioritize self-preservation over their intermediary role in facilitating liquidity flows, potentially weakening trade credit as a transmission channel of monetary policy.